Europe’s ambition for semiconductor strategic autonomy has met significant limitations, with its global market share, as projected by the Commission, set to stagnate at around 11.7% by 2030, well short of the 20% target set by the 2023 EU Chips Act. While Europe excels in segments like power electronics and equipment manufacturing, its limited presence in high-growth areas like logic and memory chips, coupled with fierce global competition and geopolitics, hampers its progress. The concept of “strategic autonomy” has proven divisive and vague, leading to calls for a more practical framework based on the EU’s 2023 Economic Security Strategy emphasizing resilience and competitiveness.
The concept of strategic autonomy, though rooted in defence policy, has spilled into industrial and economic debates. Yet it is rarely invoked directly in semiconductor legislation or speeches by EU leaders, suggesting a strategic avoidance due to its polarizing nature. In contrast, terms like “economic security” and “resilience” are gaining traction. The Chips Act emphasizes boosting innovation and addressing supply chain fragility over full independence. This mirrors a broader shift toward managing interdependence rather than severing it, showcasing a pragmatic recognition of Europe’s entrenched position in global value chains.
Europe’s semiconductor ecosystem faces three interlinked risk domains: geopolitical instability in East Asia, geo-economic friction from U.S.-China rivalry, and internal economic constraints such as industry fragmentation and workforce shortages. Despite awareness of these challenges, coordinated policy responses remain inadequate. Pillar III of the Chips Act, designed for real-time monitoring, has yet to reach full implementation. Better intelligence sharing and targeted interventions are essential to navigate escalating risks and support sectors like automotive and defence that rely on mature chips.
Europe must cultivate strategic indispensability. Preserving monopolies like ASML’s in EUV lithography and leveraging R&D excellence is critical but so is generating the customer base for advanced manufacturing capabilities in logic chips. Addressing capital shortfalls, talent gaps, and industrial clustering inefficiencies will be key, as will aligning trade, export controls, and economic intelligence cooperation with international partners. Ultimately, Europe’s success hinges not on elusive autonomy but on operationalizing economic security through coordinated and stably funded initiatives.