Our national and economic security are now acutely threatened by our reliance upon hostile foreign powers’ mineral production.” – President Donald Trump, as he signed an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act to accelerate domestic production of critical minerals essential to American growth and national security. As the issue of dependency on foreign sources of critical minerals is set to shape policymaking on both sides of aisle for years to come in Washington, I wanted to share the latest research report from GLOBSEC’s GeoTech Center: Innovation in Critical Raw Materials.
The report quantifies the growing gap between demand and local supply of critical raw materials in North America and Europe and suggests and quantifies the impact of various innovation driven approaches to narrow the gap by 2030:
“By 2030,North America and Europe are likely to experience significant gaps between demand and local supply in many critical raw materials (CRMs) … Growth in demand for these materials is expected to far outpace growth in local supply resulting in North American local supply of less than 50 percent of demand in copper, lithium, and synthetic graphite, and European local supply of less than 20 percent of demand in nickel, lithium, copper, and natural graphite.”
Notable key points:
- Supply-side approaches include:
- New and expanded sites – expanding existing mining and processing sites and accelerating projects currently in the pipeline through simplifying permitting and ensuring sufficient financing.
- Primary supply innovation — improving mining material yield through AI-enabled process optimization, innovative chemical processes like direct lithium extraction, and recovery of metals from mining tailings (i.e., residual resources from the processing of mined ore).
- Demand side approaches:
- Technology mix shift — adopting alternative technologies, for example, using battery chemistries, such as sodium-ion batteries, that would require less CRMs than lithium-ion batteries with some types of sodium-ion technologies being uniquely suitable for large-scale battery storage applications due to high power densities and cycle life
- Material substitution — leveraging alternative materials for common use cases, such as deploying alternative motor technologies that have lower demand for rare earth elements.
Five years ago, many of these solutions would’ve been dismissed as unviable. Now, they’re not only possible — they may be essential.
“If implemented, in North America, these approaches could close the gaps across most CRMs, except for copper, manganese and synthetic graphite, for which local supply would cover 52 percent, 87 percent, and 94 percent of demand, respectively.”
Notable recommendation North American authorities and stakeholders:
- Deploy capital and help attract investment: Increase investments in CRM projects, low-CRM technologies (e.g., alternative battery concepts), and material innovations
- Integrate CRMs into defense frameworks: Substantially expand the National Defense Stockpile, explore the potential of using the stockpile as a market stabilizer, expand intelligence and early warning